Opinion Poll

Examples of Opinion Poll in the following topics:

• Types of Polls

  • The main types of polls are: opinion, benchmark, bushfire, entrance, exit, deliberative opinion, tracking, and the straw poll.
  • An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample.
  • The possibility that the prospective voter might change his or her mind after the poll is very small compared to that of an opinion poll; therefore, the margin of error of an entrance poll is expected to be lower than that of an opinion poll.
  • Like all opinion polls, exit polls by nature do include a margin of error.
  • The deliberative opinion poll is a form of opinion poll that incorporates the principles of deliberative democracy.

• Early Public Opinion Research and Polling

  • The first known example of an opinion poll was an 1824 local straw poll by The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian for the Jackson Adams race.
  • The first known example of an opinion poll was a local straw poll conducted by The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian in 1824, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency.
  • Louis Harris had been in the field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner.
  • By the 1950s, various types of polling had spread to most democracies.
  • Identify the historical origins of public opinion research in the United States

• Constructing Public Opinion Surveys

  • An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample, and is designed to represent the opinions of a population.
  • An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a "poll," is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample .
  • Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.
  • Some prospective respondents may simply be less likely to respond to polls generally, not interested in the subject, or may be unreachable for many reasons.
  • For example, polls or surveys that are conducted by calling a random sample of publicly available telephone numbers will not include the responses of people with unlisted telephone numbers, cell phone numbers, who are unable to answer the phone, and who do not answer calls from unknown/unfamiliar telephone numbers.

• Likeability of Political Candidates

  • Likeability refers to whether or not the electorate generally likes a candidate, as measured by opinion polls .
  • Polling agencies conduct surveys of potential voters during election seasons to measure how the electorate ranks the traits of candidates.

• The Gallup Organization

  • George Gallup founded the American Institute of Public Opinion, the precursor of The Gallup Organization, in Princeton, New Jersey, in 1935.
  • He wished to objectively determine the opinions held by the general public.
  • The Gallup Poll is the division of Gallup that regularly conducts public opinion polls in more than 140 countries around the world.
  • Gallup Polls are often referenced in the mass media as a reliable and objective measurement of public opinion.
  • Locate the historical origins and significance of the Gallup Organization for public opinion research in the United States

• Defining Public Opinion

  • Public opinion or political opinion is the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs held by the adult population.
  • Public opinion or Political opinion is the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs held by the adult population.
  • Public opinion can also be defined as the complex collection of opinions of many different people and the sum of all their views.
  • So, public opinion polling cannot measure the public.
  • Governments have increasingly found surveys to be useful tools for guiding their public policies through voter polls as seen in .

• The Importance of Accuracy

  • The importance of accuracy may be illustrated through the example of the Literary Digest Roosevelt-Landon presidential election poll.
  • In 1936, the Digest conducted their presidential poll with 2.3 million voters, a huge sample size.
  • At the same time, George Gallup conducted a far smaller, but more scientifically based survey, in which he polled a more demographically representative sample.
  • Relevance of the survey information, quality of the data, and overcoming personal bias are integral to polling accuracy.
  • Discuss the importance of maintaining accuracy when conducting measuring public opinion

• The Problems with Polls

  • A sample size of around 500 – 1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls .
  • Another way to reduce the margin of error is to rely on poll averages.
  • This method is based on the assumption that the procedure and sample size is similar enough between many different polls to justify creating a polling average.
  • A number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results.
  • Since some people do not answer calls from strangers or refuse to answer the poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a non-response bias.

• Size and Resources

  • They may not be politically active, or else they may use indirect tactics such as media campaigns, research, and public opinion polls in order to advance their cause.
  • If these large corporations were to suddenly become less successful, it might create economic trouble, which could turn public opinion against elected officials.
  • Since legislators are elected, there is a strong incentive for them to vote for issues that are popular with the current public opinion.
  • Media campaigns can be very effective at marshaling public opinion, but they are very expensive, because campaigns need to buy television and radio air time, as well as print advertisements.
  • As organizations attempting to influence politics through public opinion, interest groups with larger memberships have an advantage over smaller ones.

• Conducting Polls

  • Steps to conduct a poll effectively including identifying a sample, evaluating poll questions, and selecting a question and response mode.
  • Generally, in order to conduct a poll, the survey methodologist must do the following :
  • Usually, a poll consists of a number of questions that the respondent answers in a set format.
  • Adequate questionnaire construction is critical to the success of a poll.
  • Inappropriate questions, incorrect ordering of questions, incorrect scaling, or bad questionnaire format can make the survey valueless, as it may not accurately reflect the views and opinions of the participants.