margin of error

Examples of margin of error in the following topics:

• Analyzing Data

  • The margin of error is a statistic used to analyze data.
  • The margin of error can be described as an "absolute" quantity.
  • Therefore, the absolute margin of error is 5 people, but the "percent relative" margin of error is 10% (because 5 people are ten percent of 50 people).
  • The margin of error is a measure of how close the results are likely to be.
  • The FPC, factored into the calculation of the margin of error, has the effect of narrowing the margin of error.

• Types of Polls

  • These polls usually focus on likely voters and the length of the survey varies on the number of messages being tested.
  • The possibility that the prospective voter might change his or her mind after the poll is very small compared to that of an opinion poll; therefore, the margin of error of an entrance poll is expected to be lower than that of an opinion poll.
  • Like all opinion polls, exit polls by nature do include a margin of error.
  • A famous example of exit poll error occurred in the 1992 UK General Election, when two exit polls predicted a hung parliament.
  • The deliberative opinion poll is a form of opinion poll that incorporates the principles of deliberative democracy.

• The Problems with Polls

  • In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample with the reduction in sampling error.
  • Another way to reduce the margin of error is to rely on poll averages.
  • Some of these reflect errors on the part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature.
  • In these cases, bias introduces new errors, in addition to errors caused by sample size.
  • Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the polling methodology.

• Sampling Techniques

  • In statistics and survey methodology, sampling is concerned with the selection of a subset of individuals from within a statistical population to estimate characteristics of the whole population .
  • In a simple random sample (SRS) of a given size, all such subsets of the frame are given an equal probability.
  • Furthermore, any given pair of elements has the same chance of selection as any other pair.
  • However, SRS can be vulnerable to sampling error because the randomness of the selection may result in a sample that doesn't reflect the makeup of the population.
  • The normal distribution curve can help indicate if the results of a survey are significant and what the margin of error may be.

• U.S. Court of Appeals

  • These twelve circuit courts decide whether or not the district courts within their geographic jurisdiction have made an error in conducting a trial .
  • However, only about 17% of eligible litigants do so because of the expense of appealing.
  • First, a litigant who files an appeal, known as an appellant, must show that the trial court or an administrative agency made a legal error that affected the decision in the case.
  • The appellant presents a document called a brief, which lays out the legal arguments to persuade the judge that the trial court made an error.
  • Meanwhile, the party defending against the appeal, known as the apellee, also presents a brief presenting reasons the trial court decision is correct or why an error made by the trial court is not significant enough to reverse the decision.

• The 2012 Presidential Election

  • Barack Hussein Obama was re-elected President of the United States on Tuesday, November 6th, 2012.
  • While he lost the popular vote by a slight margin, a much greater margin in the electoral college necessitated his loss.
  • Romney won New Hampshire, Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania won in Iowa, and former Speaker of the U.S.
  • House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich, won South Carolina by a surprising margin.
  • Census changed the apportionment of votes in the Electoral College, potentially changing the allocation of votes among swing states.

• Constructing Public Opinion Surveys

  • An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample, and is designed to represent the opinions of a population.
  • The most common modes of administration are:
  • Usually, a survey consists of a number of questions the respondent answers in a set format.
  • Because they are standardized, they are relatively free from several types of errors.
  • Self-selection bias: Although the individuals chosen to participate in surveys are often randomly sampled, errors due to non-responses may exist.

• Minorities, Women, and Children

  • Minorities, women, and children are often the target of specific social policies.
  • That is, those who hold the majority of positions of social power in a society.
  • In the social sciences, the term minority is used to refer to categories of persons who hold few positions of social power .
  • This can be, for example, a government program to provide immigrant or minority groups who primarily speak a marginalized language with extra teaching in the majority language, so they are better able to compete for places at universities or for jobs.
  • Another form of affirmative action is quotas, where a percentage of places at university, or in employment in public services, are set aside for minority groups (including women) because a court has found that there has been a history of exclusion as it pertains to certain groups in certain sectors of society.

• The Impact of Minor Parties

  • They are usually not even allowed on ballots for due to lack of popular support and signatures to warrant a place under local laws.
  • The problem feeds upon itself as the marginality of third parties means that they are not well known enough to attract national attention, and therefore unable to raise the funds that could promote their politics and make them well known.
  • For example, segregationist American Independent Party candidate George Wallace gained 13.5% of the popular vote in the 1968 election.
  • In response, the Republican Party adopted a "Southern Strategy" to win the support of conservative Democrats in the South who opposed the new Civil Rights movement.
  • Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate, is accused of "stealing" votes away from Al Gore, a Democrat, in the 2000 election.

• Checks and Balances

  • To get the three branches of government to cooperate, a system of checks and balances was created to achieve a fair separation of powers.
  • Critics argue that pardons have been used more often for the sake of political expediency than to correct judicial error.
  • Critics argue that pardons have been used more often for the sake of political expediency than to correct judicial error.
  • The President is the civilian Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States.
  • Discuss the details of the Constitution's system of checks and balances