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File:Sea level rise projections for the 21st century.png

Summary

Description
English: This image shows sea level rise projections for the 21st century, relative to the year 2000. Data are taken from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007), US National Research Council (US NRC, 2012) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). The IPCC (2007) estimates do not include all of the possible contributions from ice sheets (US NRC, 2012, pp.84-85). According to US NRC (2012, p.88), "the IPCC (2007) projections are likely underestimates because they do not account fully for cryospheric processes". Projections for IPCC (2007) are given for the year 2100 only.

Projections

Projections are given below in centimetres (cm). Abbreviations: N = US NRC (2012), E = Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009), and I = IPCC (2007).

  • For N: the first number is the projection, followed by the estimated error. Then follows the low- and high-range estimates.
  • For E, the first number is the projection, followed by the low- and high-range estimates.
  • For I, the first number is the low-range estimate, followed by the high-range estimate. IPCC AR4 SYR (2007) state: "Because understanding of some important effects driving sea level rise is too limited, this report does not assess the likelihood, nor provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise."

Year 2030:

  • N: 13.5 ± 1.8. 8.3-23.2.
  • E: 18. 14-22.

Year 2050:

  • N: 28 ± 3.2. 17.6-48.2.
  • E: 37. 28-47.

Year 2100:

  • N: 82.7 ± 10.6. 50.4-140.2.
  • E: 121. 78-175.
  • I: 18-59.

US NRC (2012) explain how these projections were made.

References

  • IPCC AR4 SYR (2007), "3 Projected climate change and its impacts, in: Summary for Policymakers", in Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; and Reisinger, A., Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (SYR). Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, ISBN  92-9169-122-4, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3.html 
  • US NRC (2012), "TABLE 5.2, in: Ch 5: Projections of Sea-Level Change", Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future, Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press, ISBN  978-0-309-25594-3, http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13389&page=89 , p.89.
  • Vermeer, M., and S. Rahmstorf (22 December 2009), Global sea level linked to global temperature, 106, pp. 21,527-21,532, http://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.full , issue: 51.
Date 16 March 2013
Source Own work
Author Enescot

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