1948 Presidential Election
The United States presidential election of 1948 was the 41stquadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 2, 1948. Incumbent President Harry S. Truman, the Democratic nominee, successfully ran for election against Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican nominee.
This election is considered to be the greatest election upset in American history. Virtually every prediction (with or without public opinion polls) indicated that Truman would be defeated by Dewey. Both parties had severe ideological splits, with the far left and far right of the Democratic Party running third-party campaigns. Truman's surprise victory was the fifth consecutive presidential win for the Democratic Party, a record never surpassed since contests against the Republican Party began in the 1850s. Truman's feisty campaign style energized his base of traditional Democrats, most of the white South, Catholic and Jewish voters, and—in a surprise—Midwestern farmers. Thus, Truman's election confirmed the Democratic Party's status as the nation's majority party, a status it would retain until the conservative realignment in 1968.
Incorrect Polls
As the campaign drew to a close, the polls showed Truman was gaining. Though Truman lost all nine of the Gallup Poll's post-convention surveys, Dewey's Gallup lead dropped from 17 points in late September to 9% in mid-October to just 5 points by the end of the month, just above the poll's margin of error. Although Truman was gaining momentum, most political analysts were reluctant to break with the conventional wisdom and say that a Truman victory was a serious possibility. The Roper Poll had suspended its presidential polling at the end of September, barring "some development of outstanding importance," which, in their subsequent view, never occurred. Dewey was not unaware of his slippage, but he had been convinced by his advisers and family not to counterattack the Truman campaign.
Let's take a closer look at the polls. The Gallup, Roper, and Crossley polls all predicted a Dewey win. The actual results are shown in the following table: . How did this happen?
1948 Election
The table shows the results of three polls against the actual results in the 1948 presidential election. Notice that Dewey was ahead in all three polls, but ended up losing the election.
The Crossley, Gallup, and Roper organizations all used quota sampling. Each interviewer was assigned a specified number of subjects to interview. Moreover, the interviewer was required to interview specified numbers of subjects in various categories, based on residential area, sex, age, race, economic status, and other variables. The intent of quota sampling is to ensure that the sample represents the population in all essential respects.
This seems like a good method on the surface, but where does one stop? What if a significant criterion was left out--something that deeply affected the way in which people vote? This would cause significant error in the results of the poll. In addition, quota sampling involves a human element. Pollsters, in reality, were left to poll whomever they chose. Research shows that the polls tended to overestimate the Republican vote. In earlier years, the margin of error was large enough that most polls still accurately predicted the winner, but in 1948, their luck ran out. Quota sampling had to go.
Mistake in the Newspapers
One of the most famous blunders came when the Chicago Tribune wrongfully printed the inaccurate headline, "Dewey Defeats Truman" on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey.
The paper's erroneous headline became notorious after a jubilant Truman was photographed holding a copy of the paper during a stop at St. Louis Union Station while returning by train from his home in Independence, Missouri to Washington, D.C .
Dewey Defeats Truman
President Truman holds up the newspaper that wrongfully reported his defeat.
Truman, as it turned out, won the electoral vote by a 303-189 majority over Dewey, although a swing of just a few thousand votes in Ohio, Illinois, and California would have produced a Dewey victory.