public opinion polls

Examples of public opinion polls in the following topics:

• The Gallup Poll

  • The Gallup Poll is a public opinion poll that conducts surveys in 140 countries around the world.
  • Originally founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became famous for its public opinion polls, which were conducted in the United States and other countries.
  • George Gallup founded the American Institute of Public Opinion, the precursor to the Gallup Organization, in Princeton, New Jersey in 1935.
  • The Gallup Poll is the division of Gallup that regularly conducts public opinion polls in more than 140 countries around the world.
  • Gallup Polls are often referenced in the mass media as a reliable and objective audience measurement of public opinion.

• A Closer Look at the Gallup Poll

  • The Gallup Poll is an opinion poll that uses probability samples to try to accurately represent the attitudes and beliefs of a population.
  • The Gallup Poll is the division of Gallup, Inc. that regularly conducts public opinion polls in more than 140 countries around the world.
  • It is very well known when it comes to presidential election polls and is often referenced in the mass media as a reliable and objective audience measurement of public opinion.
  • The Gallup Poll is an opinion poll that uses probability sampling.
  • These people can still vote, but their opinions would not be taken into account in the polls.

• Caveat Emptor and the Gallup Poll

  • Readers of polls, such as the Gallup Poll, should exercise Caveat Emptor by taking into account the poll's margin of error.
  • The Gallup Poll is the division of the Gallup Company that regularly conducts public opinion polls in more than 140 countries around the world.
  • Gallup Polls are often referenced in the mass media as a reliable and objective measurement of public opinion.
  • Since inception, Gallup Polls have been used to measure and track public attitudes concerning a wide range of political, social, and economic issues (including highly sensitive or controversial subjects).
  • Readers should pay close attention to a poll's margin of error.

• The Literary Digest Poll

  • Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion.
  • Beginning with early issues, the emphasis of The Literary Digest was on opinion articles and an analysis of news events.
  • Established as a weekly news magazine, it offered condensations of articles from American, Canadian, and European publications.
  • George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result of the 1936 election and by also correctly predicting the quite different results of the Literary Digest poll to within about 1%, using a smaller sample size of 50,000.
  • This debacle led to a considerable refinement of public opinion polling techniques and later came to be regarded as ushering in the era of modern scientific public opinion research.

• The Year the Polls Elected Dewey

  • Virtually every prediction (with or without public opinion polls) indicated that Truman would be defeated by Dewey.
  • Let's take a closer look at the polls.
  • The Gallup, Roper, and Crossley polls all predicted a Dewey win.
  • This would cause significant error in the results of the poll.
  • Pollsters, in reality, were left to poll whomever they chose.

• References

  • Squire, P. (1988) Why the 1936 Literary Digest poll failed.
  • Public Opinion Quarterly, 52, 125-133.

• Surveys or Experiments?

  • Polls about public opinion, public health surveys, market research surveys, government surveys, and censuses are all examples of quantitative research that use contemporary survey methodology to answers questions about a population.
  • Surveys provide important information for all kinds of public information and research fields, like marketing research, psychology, health, and sociology.
  • A survey involves asking different people about their opinion on a particular product or about a particular issue, whereas an experiment is a comprehensive study about something with the aim of proving it scientifically.

• Critical Thinking

  • Each day people are inundated with statistical information from advertisements ("4 out of 5 dentists recommend"), news reports ("opinion polls show the incumbent leading by four points"), and even general conversation ("half the time I don't know what you're talking about").
  • The aim of statistical literacy is to improve the public understanding of numbers and figures.
  • For example, results of opinion polling are often cited by news organizations, but the quality of such polls varies considerably.
  • Good polls use unbiased techniques, with much time and effort being spent in the design of the questions and polling strategy.
  • Statistical literacy is necessary to understand what makes a poll trustworthy and to properly weigh the value of poll results and conclusions.

• Telephone Surveys

  • A telephone survey is a type of opinion poll used by researchers.
  • In certain polls, the interviewer or interviewee (or both) may wish to remain anonymous, which can be achieved if the poll is conducted over the phone by a third party.
  • As some people do not answer calls from strangers, or may refuse to answer the poll, poll samples are not always representative samples from a population due to what is known as non-response bias.
  • However, if those who do not answer have different opinions, then the results have bias.
  • In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias.

• Random Sampling

  • An online poll in which a person is asked to given their opinion about something is not random because only those people with strong opinions, either positive or negative, are likely to respond.
  • This type of poll doesn't reflect the opinions of the apathetic .
  • Online and phone-in polls also produce biased samples because the respondents are self-selected.
  • In self-selection bias, those individuals who are highly motivated to respond-- typically individuals who have strong opinions-- are over-represented, and individuals who are indifferent or apathetic are less likely to respond.