scenario analysis

(noun)

a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes

Related Terms

Examples of scenario analysis in the following topics:

  • Scenario Analysis

    • Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing decisions by considering alternative possible outcomes.
    • Scenario analysis is a strategic process of analyzing decisions by considering alternative possible outcomes (sometimes called "alternative worlds").
    • For example, a firm might use scenario analysis to determine the net present value (NPV) of a potential investment under high and low inflation scenarios.
    • The purpose of scenario analysis is not to identify the exact conditions of each scenario; it just needs to approximate them to provide a plausible idea of what might happen.
    • This scenario analysis shows how changes in factors like yield and transport cost can affect profits.

  • Risks Involved in Capital Budgeting

    • One such way is to conduct a sensitivity analysis.
    • A related practice is uncertainty analysis which focuses rather on quantifying uncertainty in model output.
    • Ideally, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be run in tandem.
    • Another method is scenario analysis, which involves the process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes.
    • It may also perform stress testing, using adverse scenarios.

  • Conducting a Situational Analysis

    • The situation analysis consists of several methods of analysis: The 5Cs, SWOT and Porter's five forces analyses.
    • An analysis on the climate is also known as the PEST analysis.
    • This analysis helps a company come up with a plan that keeps it prepared for a number of potential scenarios.
    • Porter five forces analysis is a framework for industry analysis and business strategy development.
    • A SWOT analysis can be a useful tool in conducting a situational analysis.

  • Instructional Scenarios

    • Here are some scenarios that portray educational applications of behaviorism: Scenarios for Using Behaviorism (http://epltt.coe.uga.edu/index.php?

  • Responding to Uncertainty in Strategic Planning

    • Uncertainty exists when there is more than one possible outcome; it is best managed using scenario-planning tools.
    • Instead of just following trend lines, scenarios focus on the collective impact of many factors.
    • Scenario planning helps to understand how the various strands of a complex tapestry move if one or more threads are pulled.
    • A list of possible causes, like a fault-tree analysis, tends to downplay the impact of isolated factors.
    • Scenario planning for business was originally established by Royal Dutch/Shell, which has used scenarios since the early 1970s as part of its process for generating and evaluating strategic options.

  • Instructional Scenarios

    • Focuses on a scenario in a language arts class in a suburban American high school (http://epltt.coe.uga.edu/index.php?

  • Evaluate Alternatives

    • This typically involves analysis of quantitative data such as costs or revenues.
    • A first step in analysis is identifying all the sources of data needed to understand the various alternatives and their potential outcomes.
    • There are a few approaches that can be used to help structure the analysis and assessment of potential decision alternatives.
    • In the scenario depicted by the influence diagram above, a person is choosing between vacation alternatives.
    • Model potential decision alternatives through utilizing pro/con analysis, influence diagrams, decision trees and Bayesian networks

  • Steps to Integrating Experiential Learning in the Classroom

    • Set up the experience by introducing learners to the topic and covering basic material that the learner must know beforehand (the video in the above scenario as well as discussion).
    • Allow the learners to experiment with their newly formed concepts and experiences (interpreting current conflict and conflict resolution scenario).
    • These cycles generally consist of participation by the user, decision making, and a period of analysis.

  • Characteristics

    • The fictitious scenario and activity with Mr.
    • These characteristics will be described in detail, highlighting and reflecting on various actions and events from the scenario presented at the beginning of the chapter.Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between these factors.
    • In essence, the teacher creates an environment where students take ownership in the direction and content of their learning.In the scenario, Mr.
    • The Samstonian River fish kill scenario does include some elements that are not necessarily present in all problem-based inquiry models, such as a problem that has direct implications on the local community, and student access to resources outside the classroom.These additional factors may create more relevance and influence student motivation for learning; however, they may not be included in other problem-based scenarios, because subject areas such as history and geography are not always immediately relevant.For example, the question, "How should ballots in Florida have been counted during the 2000 presidential election?
    • Creation of a final product is not a necessary requirement of all problem-based inquiry models.In the fish kill example, the teacher assigns the students the creation of a proposal for a product that will later serve as evidence in a mock trial.Project-based learning models most often include this type of product as an integral part of the learning process because learning is expected to occur primarily in the act of creating something.Unlike problem-based inquiry models, project-based learning does not necessarily address a real-world problem, nor does it focus on providing argumentation for resolution of an issue.In a problem-based inquiry setting, there is greater emphasis on problem-solving, analysis, resolution, and explanation of an authentic dilemma.Sometimes this analysis and explanation is represented in the form of a project, but it can also take the form of verbal debate and written summary.

  • Informed Decisions

    • Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes (cognitive processes) resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios.
    • The decisive actions are taken and additional actions are taken to prevent any adverse consequences from becoming problems, which can lead to the processes of problem analysis and decision-making to begin all over again.
    • An MIS supports a business' long-range plans, providing performance analysis reports on areas critical to those plans, with feedback mechanisms that improve guidance for every aspect of the enterprise, including recruitment and training.